(DP 2000-09) Boom-bust Cycles and Crisis Periods in the Philippines: A Regime-switching Analysis

Abstract

This study examines Philippine macroeconomic fluctuations using Markov regime-switching techniques. Using all available GDP data, an annual and a quarterly model are constructed to explain Philippine boom-bust cycles as switches into any of three states─a moderate growth state, a low growth state and a crisis state. The number and labeling of states are based on historical events. The annual model shows adequate tracking ability. The quarterly model reveals a finer classification of the bust phase into low growth states and crisis states for the 1990-decade ─ a result that does not appear in the annual model. The crisis dates determined by the quarterly model closely correspond to the four crisis episodes that occured between 1981 and 1999

JEL Classification: E32, O11

Keywords: Boom-bust cycles, Markov regime-switching, Moderate growth state, Low growth state, Crisis state