Ex ante impact evaluation of conditional cash transfer program on school attendance and poverty: the case of the Philippines

Abstract

This paper provides an ex ante assessment of the implementation of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in the Philippines, called Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino. The study investigates the impact of CCT on current poverty and that of this extra money on school attendance under different transfer amounts and different targeting criteria such as universal targeting, geographical targeting, targeting of the poor, and progressive targeting. In the poverty simulation approach, it is assumed that transfers given to children are pooled within families and distributed to each member so that all enjoy the same level of welfare. As for school attendance, the study evaluates the potential impact of changes in program design—with alternative benefit levels and targeting scenarios—on the behavioral response and welfare of households. The simulation is carried out based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior.

JEL classification: J22, J13, J24, J38, I32