Balance of Payments, Output, and the IMF

Abstract

The paper presents a historical sketch of the various arrangements between the Philippine government and the IMF. It then tries to quantify the output effects of the IMF’s financial programming techniques using a Lucas-Barro type output equation. The model’s estimate of the decline in output for 1984 and 1985 arising from unanticipated money alone is 7 per cent. The actual decline was 9 per cent.